Maybe the rain

Over at Chemtrails North NZ, Clare Swinney makes the claim that

Evidence suggests that rain clouds approaching Northland are being handicapped by human intervention, probably, in part, to promote the perception of “climate change.”

…and provides evidence of this by posting some satellite imagery of cloud cover covered in arrows pointing to (supposedly) man-made ‘holes’, which are (presumably) evidence of manipulation.

Putting aside the problem that the water in these holes still has to go somewhere, and that there’s still millions of tonnes of water left in the remaining cloud cover, the main problem with Clare’s argument is that her main point…

Rainfall levels appear to being reduced significantly.

…is plain wrong. Here’s the last two years of rainfall data from Whangarei Airport, measured against the historical average.

rain

In fact, in the last five months, rainfall figures have been above or about average. June, July and August were really wet: double the average.  Before that March/April/May were drier than usual (May especially so), but that was after a wet February. And before that, a dry January, and a slightly above-average December. In other words, natural variability at play. There’s certainly no way you could make the argument that rainfall levels have been ‘reduced significantly’.

Well, I suppose you could, but…

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More ignorance from Kiwi Chemmies

Clare Swinney’s Northland Chemtrail Watch continues to amaze with the level of ignorance it encourages.

In a post today Clare repeats a post from “Des of Blenheim” –

The photos below were taken on November the 10th by Des of Blenheim, which is in the north east of the South Island of New Zealand. Des posted these on the Chemtrails over NZ forum on Facebook at 12.23pm on the 10th and wrote that he had witnessed planes spraying over Blenheim: “This can’t be normal to have so many planes fly over… about 20 so far.”

Or Des could have done just a smidgen of research, at, say, Christchurch Airport’s arrivals/departures page.

And then he could have counted the number of arrivals and departures at Chch from Auckland and some of the northern airports in Australia – I counted over 13 arrivals in 1 weekday just from Auckland. Which means more than 25 flights – arrivals and departures.

So actually Des, yes, it is normal!

I have pointed this out in a comment on the site….but barring a miracle none of mine ever get through!

The observant among you will have noticed that the blog post title says these trails “criss cross”……but the photos all show 3-4 parallel trails, and a bit of high cirrus that is the front that was coming through that day – promising hail and rain for Cup Day in Chch the next day (11 Nov) – you can see it quite clearly in Satellite photos of the area at the time, eg MODIS

The photos do not show any alignment, but I believe the trails are all more-or-less north/south, and the front is northwest/south east – as is often the way for fronts coming up from the southern Tasman Sea. So yes the front is at an angle to the trails….which is exactly what anyone without an agenda to fool people would acknowledge!

And example of supposed criss-crossing trails
An example of supposed criss-crossing trails
More criss crossing
More criss crossing…???
Third time unlucky I guess...
Third time unlucky I guess…

Sadly time precludes highlighting ALL of Clare’s disinfo, however the occasional update serves to show the consistent deception she practices.

Chemcloud v. Cirrus

cirrus-v-chemcloudsOn the left, chemclouds over Nelson as spotted by Ngaire Smith, and posted on Clare Swinney’s Northland NZ Chemtrail watch site.

On the right, cirrus clouds as documented in the 1896 publication Atlas international des nuages (International Cloud Atlas)

(See also this image containing a drawing of cirrus, from 1815’s Researches about Amospheric Phaenomena)

Learn the difference!

Chemtrail formation on a warm day

One of the requirements for contrail formation is cold air with high humidity. So, Angela Truman makes an interesting observation over on the Chemtrails over NZ facebook group

hot

Putting aside for the moment the concept that 21ºC is ‘hot’, she does seem to have a point. If it’s too hot for contrails, then surely the trails spotted must be chemtrails.

But how hot was it at flight altitude? It does, after all, get a lot colder as you go higher. Luckily, it seems there are a few websites that collate and display the upper air readings made around NZ each day. I assume the source is the MetService upper air data, but their display of the data is unreadable, and learning how to interpret Met VUWs tehphigrams is something I’m going to put aside for another day. The best place I could find that displays the data in nice human-readable format was (of all places) the University of Wyoming’s Department of Atmospheric Sciences, where you can plug in a station code to get the corresponding data back.

Here’s the two readings from Paraparaumu (closest station to Wellington) for that day (one in the morning, one in the evening). As you can see on the 21Z reading, when it’s nearly 21 degrees at ground level, it’s actually somewhere between -35ºC and -50ºC up at flight altitudes. Cold enough for contrails to form?

I looked around the NZ chemtrails sites to find out the best way to interpret these results, and found that Clare Swinney recommends the use of the Appleman Chart — a simple enough chart that allows you to determine the likelihood of contrails forming given various altitude/temperature/pressure/humidity combinations). Again, an excellent tool for determining what might and might not be a chemtrail — if the conditions aren’t right, a contrail can’t form, therefore what’s left is mostly likely a chemtrail! So, plotting those numbers from a typical cruising altitude of 35000ft (250hPA, -46.9ºC, 27% rel/humidity), we get…

appleman… ‘maybe contrails’.

I predict…

…that somewhere in the world, in the next 10 days, it’ll be really really windy somewhere.

Hopefully this will put me in the same category of soothsayer as the much-respected WEATHERONUT (respected by Clare, at any rate), who predicts a 7.0+ earthquake somewhere on the Planet Earth (as opposed to some other planet) in the next 10 days.

Now, there’s been 19 earthquakes of this magnitude or greater so far this year, which at the time of the last 7.0+, averages out at one quake of this magnitude every 15 days or so.

It’s been a month since the last big ‘un (that 7.1 in Turkey), so, from statistical point of view, we’re already 15 days overdue for another one. Of course, earthquakes don’t concern themselves with maintaining statistical averages — there weren’t any quakes of this magnitude in February or May, for example — but, given the frequency with which quakes of that size have been occurring in recent times, is Weatheronut’s prediction really that big a call?

Earthquakes on a grid?

Another interesting post over at Clare’s notes an unusual ‘grid pattern’ to earthquakes taking place near the Canary Islands and in Eastern Turkey recently.

“Surely this is unnatural” states Clare. And, yes, it certainly looks a bit odd. What could it be? Surely such a clean, delineated pattern must be the result of human interference?!

Well, to a degree, it is. The European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre website, from which the images of the grid-like pattern are taken, are rounding the longitude/latitude co-ordinates of every single recorded earthquake to 2 decimal points. As such, any swarm of quakes in the same area will appear to be evenly spaced from each other as the rounding effect pushes each quake onto the grid created from that mechanism.

The ‘gridding’ effect only becomes apparent when there’s a lot of earthquakes very close together, which allows for a zoom level high enough to allow it to become apparent, but, rest assured, every single earthquake on the EMSC gmap will appear on the intersection points of that grid. It’s impossible for them to not appear on those points!

Looking at it right now, you can see exactly the same effect is still taking place in the Canary Islands and Turkey. Here’s the snapshot of (at the time of writing) recent Canary Islands quakes, with the long/lat grid overlaid to illustrate what’s happening. (Edit: yes, I mislabelled the first longitude point – it shoud be 18.03W)…

Here’s another one, Turkey this time…

Now, as explained above, you need a pretty large number of quakes in a very small area for the grid to become obvious (you need to be able zoom in close enough for it to really jump out at you), and the only places where that kind of swarm is occurring at the moment is in the Canary Islands, and in Turkey, which have both already been fingered as ‘unnatural’. How about a series of four quakes in the North Atlantic, far from anywhere, and surely off the NWO’s radar? Are they on the grid…?

Of course they are.

Given the way the EMSC is plotting them, they have to be.

(Note: I’ve only drawn on the relevant long/lat grid lines here, as it was going to get too cluttered otherwise. This is a good example of how you need a decent cluster of quakes for the effect to show up in any obvious way. At this zoom level, the pattern is still there, but not so apparent.)